More than 60% of subsidies retreat: is there still a chance for China's new energy automobile industry?
Release time:
2019-03-27 16:59
Electrification is one of the important directions for the development of the automobile industry. The state has also introduced a number of preferential policies such as financial subsidies and purchase tax reductions to encourage the development of the new energy automobile industry. And China's new energy automobile industry has achieved remarkable results in the world. In 2018, my country's new energy vehicle production and sales completed 1.27 million and 1.256 million vehicles respectively, an increase of 59.9 and 61.7 respectively over the same period of the previous year, accounting for more than half of the global new energy vehicle production and sales.
However, with the time to enter 2019, China's subsidy policy ushered in more than 60% of the big retreat, significantly lower the Tesla price threshold of the Model 3 officially into China, the traditional multinational auto giants have also begun to power electrification ...... China's new energy vehicle industry is facing unprecedented challenges.
Although the industry is still optimistic about the overall development trend of the new energy vehicle market in 2019, as far as China's local new energy vehicle industry is concerned, it has begun to encounter the threat of external forces. After entering a new stage of development, where is the future road for my country's new energy automobile industry?
Subsidies retreat more than 60%
On March 26, the Ministry of Finance and other ministries jointly issued the notice on further improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. According to the notice, China's maximum subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles in 2019 will be reduced to 25000 yuan, 50% less than that in 2018, while the subsidy for plug-in hybrid vehicles will be reduced from 22000 yuan in 2018 to 10000 yuan. In addition, China's requirements for battery energy density and cruising range have been raised again, and local subsidies for new energy vehicles (except for new energy buses and fuel cell vehicles) have been directly canceled. This means that pure electric vehicles that previously received a subsidy of 75000 yuan will only receive 25000 yuan in the second half of 2019, with a comprehensive decline rate of 66.6 per cent.
In the subsidy policy has not yet been released, many new energy car companies have begun to adjust prices. In January 2019, Xinte took the lead in adjusting the official selling price of its products, up from 5000 yuan to 6000 yuan. In early February, Xiaopeng Auto raised the overall price range of Xiaopeng G3 from 13.58~165800 yuan to 15.58~199800 yuan. In March this year, BAIC New Energy raised the price of EX360, with the whole department rising 5000 yuan to 8.49~103900 yuan. In addition, car companies such as Weilai, Weima and BYD have also introduced a time-limited price insurance policy to encourage consumers to buy cars before the subsidy retreat comes.
The 1/4 of 2019 is almost over. In 2020, the prices of these products will continue to rise. At that time, the gap between the price of new energy products of Chinese enterprises and joint venture brands will be even smaller. Chen Hong, chairman of SAIC Group, even believes that if there are no other alternative policies, China's new energy vehicle sales will fall by 40% after the subsidy is completely reduced.
Along with the subsidy retreat policy, there is also the policy of liberalizing the ratio of joint venture shares. On April 17 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that in 2018, it will cancel the foreign equity ratio restrictions for special-purpose vehicles and new energy vehicles; in 2020, the foreign equity ratio restrictions for commercial vehicles will be canceled; in 2022, the foreign equity ratio restrictions for passenger cars will be canceled, and joint ventures will not exceed Two restrictions.
The effect of the stock ratio liberalization policy was immediate: on July 10, 2018, Tesla officially decided to build a factory alone in Lingang, Shanghai; in the same month, it was revealed that BMW would increase the share ratio of BMW Brilliance, a joint venture in China. In October, it took the initiative to announce that it had reached a relevant agreement with Brilliance Group. Since then, the other two major German car companies Daimler and Volkswagen have also released information to the outside world, planning to adjust the shareholding ratio of joint ventures in China.
When the share ratio of overseas car companies in joint ventures increases, their profits will also rise. At that time, it is difficult to guarantee that these multinational giants will not continue to lower product prices in order to obtain a larger market scale.
Tesla accelerates to grab the market
Tesla was the first company to benefit from the stock-to-stock liberalization policy. In January 2014, Tesla officially entered the Chinese market. In the past few years, the development trend of this electric vehicle representative in the Chinese market and even the global market has been tepid. However, in 2018, Tesla ushered in a new stage of development.
In 2018, Tesla Model 3 officially began to be delivered to the public, and in the second half of the year, the production capacity climbed to more than 5000 vehicles per week. In the U.S. market, the car ranked first in sales of luxury brand mid-level cars in July of that year, more than three times the second Mercedes-Benz C- Class; since August, it has risen to the fifth place in the U.S. car sales list. In that year, the car sold more than 100000 vehicles in the United States, helping Tesla to secure the fifth largest luxury brand manufacturer in the United States and to become the world's largest new energy vehicle manufacturer for the first time, which was achieved when the company was in the stage of capacity climbing.
As the world's largest automobile market and the largest electric vehicle market, China's importance to Tesla is self-evident. Today, Tesla Model 3 has begun to be delivered to Chinese owners. According to industry sources, the first batch of 8000 Model 3 vehicles have all arrived in Chinese ports, and there are still many ships full of Model 3 on their way to China. In addition, after this product entered China, Tesla also made several adjustments to its price in China. Today, the lowest price of a new car has entered the 300000 yuan range. It is worth mentioning that the lower price of the Model 3 entry version has not yet entered China.
In March of this year, Chen Mingbo, director of the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology, stated at the National People's Congress that the Tesla Shanghai plant is expected to complete the construction of the assembly workshop in May and partially put into production before the end of the year. In the same month, the SUV Model Y, which is on the same platform as Model 3, has also been listed in the United States, starting at only US $4000 higher than Model 3, and this product will also be made in Tesla's Shanghai factory in the future.
Judging from many parameters such as battery energy density and automatic driving technology, Model 3 and Model Y are undoubtedly the best pure electric vehicles in the world. At the same time, "Tesla" has almost become synonymous with electric vehicles. With the domestic production of these two products, domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers will be nervous.
Traditional giant "elephant turn" is about to be completed
Through recent exchanges with some car companies, 100 million cars found that Tesla Model 3 is not only the Chinese new energy manufacturers, but also those multinational car giants.
At the 89th Geneva International Auto Show held in March this year, as many as 30 new energy models ushered in the global debut, accounting for more than 1/3 of the number of new cars launched in the entire exhibition. The Geneva Motor Show is known as the "international automotive trend vane". The unprecedented lineup of new energy vehicles reflects the importance of major global manufacturers in this field.
In the context of the global automotive industry turning to new energy, China will undoubtedly be one of the first major car companies to open the electric market. On the evening of March 25, a number of Volkswagen brand pure electric products such as e-LAVIDA (Lavida Pure Electric Edition), e-Bora (Bora Pure Electric Edition) and e-Golf (Golf Pure Electric Edition), which are domestically listed in China, will debut in China. At the beginning of this month, SAIC GM's first pure electric car Buick VELITE 6 just ushered in the debut. Earlier in 2018, Dongfeng Nissan's Xuanyi pure electric version was already on sale in China.
Since then, the pure electric products of domestic Mercedes-Benz EQC, BMW iX3, Audi e-tron and other multinational auto giants will also be domestically listed in the Chinese market this year and next. Toyota said that its pure electric models will also be the first to be put into production in the Chinese market in 2020, and the first products to be launched are the pure electric versions C- HR by FAW Toyota Yize and GAC Toyota.
More and more multinational giants are launching pure electric models in China, on the one hand, due to China's increasingly stringent dual-point policy, and on the other hand, they attach importance to the future of electrification, especially after Tesla's miraculous sales growth in 2018. Regardless of the purpose, these products will become a challenger to China's local new energy vehicles.
China's new energy vehicle industry can still fight
Due to the huge scale of my country's automobile market, and the sales of new energy vehicles account for less than 5%, it has left a huge market space for the new energy vehicle industry. With this advantage, China's mainstream new energy automobile enterprises have not encountered "death threat".
In 2018, the sales of new energy vehicles in China accounted for more than half of the global total sales; the number of charging piles in China reached more than 300000, more than five times that of the United States, which ranked second. At the same time, many new energy vehicle manufacturers in China have begun to win global attention. In 2018, among the top ten new energy vehicle manufacturers in global sales, a total of four Chinese companies were shortlisted, and BYD and BAIC New Energy ranked second and third.
In addition, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, world-class power battery manufacturers have emerged in China. At present, Ningde Times, China's largest power battery manufacturer, has reached cooperation with a number of multinational car giants, and is in a state of short supply. The company will also go abroad to build the world's largest power battery plant in Germany, with a planned production capacity of 100GWh. And China's second largest power battery manufacturer BYD also has plans to build factories overseas.
Also as the core components of new energy vehicles in the field of motors, China has also emerged world-class manufacturers. Jingjin Electric has now become the United States Chrysler Corporation plug-in hybrid system motor suppliers and occupy the company's 100 share. Since it was put into operation for more than two years, the market after-sales complaint rate has maintained a record of zero complaints.
While companies such as Ningde Times, BYD, and Jingjin Electric are trying to establish barriers to competition through deep cultivation in the field of technology, another part of companies are choosing to compete through commercial innovation. In February 2019, Li Bin, the founder, chairman and CEO of Weilai, a new car-making force in my country, was officially broadcast in an exclusive interview with CBS's TV news program "60 Minutes. What impresses the show is not the powerful product power of the vehicle, but its new business model that changes the "lifestyle" of consumers.
In the field of new energy vehicle travel services, there is no stable profit-making enterprise in the world. The situation in the domestic market is also unclear. Although there are many multinational auto giants, they have not seen obvious results. In contrast, new energy travel service companies such as GoFun and Cao Cao travel have emerged in China's local enterprises, and Chinese companies are becoming the leading force in the field of new energy vehicle travel services.
With the huge development space of the local market, the technical advantages of core components and the scale advantages of travel services, China's new energy automobile industry still has the strength to fight with overseas rivals. However, within two or three years of truth, subsidies for new energy vehicles will be completely withdrawn, the proportion of joint venture shares will be completely liberalized, and multinational giants will also turn around. The battlefield situation faced by Chinese enterprises will become more and more severe, leaving us with little time to strengthen ourselves.
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